Gaza braces for ground offensive, but can Israel achieve its objectives?

Barely two days after Israel witnessed the boldest and most sophisticated attack by a Palestinian militant group on its soil, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a promise to the Israeli people. “What Hamas is going to experience will be difficult and terrible... we are going to change the Middle East,” he said.

“Operation Iron Sword” was then launched, with Israeli Defence Minister Youv Gallant warning that, “No electricity, no water, no gas” would reach the besieged Gaza Strip.

By Thursday, the Israeli army had bombarded Gaza with approximately 6,000 bombs containing a total of 4,000 tonnes of explosives, according to an army statement.

The death toll in the enclave, which is home to more than 2 million Palestinians, rose to 1,417, said the Gaza health ministry on Thursday, with 6,268 wounded.

But Gazans know the worst is yet to come.

The next stage of the Israeli offensive has become clear; forces are “preparing for a ground manoeuvre” should political leaders order one, Israeli military spokesman Richard Hecht told reporters on Thursday.

Military equipment and columns of armoured vehicles have been moved to the new frontline, where Israel is building infrastructure for future operations, Hecht revealed on Wednesday. 

Some 360,000 army reservists have been mobilised – the largest such compulsory mobilisation since the 1973 Yom Kippur War.  

Political appetite for a ground offensive seems certain. Just a day after the shock Hamas incursion, Netanyahu told US President Joe Biden: “We have to go in [to Gaza]. We cannot negotiate now,” US media reported.  

“To my knowledge, a ground operation has been decided upon,” said General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the UN. “Penetration inside Gaza will have the principal objective of destroying Hamas,” he added. 

‘Hostages will probably be sacrificed’ 

But an Israeli intervention will also be perilous for the Palestinian population living in Gaza, and immensely complicated for military forces. 

The territory is one of the most densely populated in the world, holding almost 5,500 inhabitants per square metre. It’s overcrowded, narrow web of streets is likely to force fighters into hand-to-hand combat and greatly increase the risk of civilian casualties. 

A further complication is the network of tunnels, dubbed the "Gaza Metro" by Israeli security experts. Some tunnels are as deep as 30 or 40 metres, allowing militants a level of mobility underground while the skies rain down tonnes of explosives.

Israel's army and intelligence are certain to know about a portion of the network, and bombarded it heavily in 2021, but other parts remain secret and will make any Israel Defense Forces (IDF) ground operation in Gaza more difficult. 

In these difficult conditions, there remains the question of how to extricate hostages being held by Hamas.

“Acting straight away means taking into account the fact that a large number of hostages will probably be sacrificed,” Trinquand said.  

‘Israel cannot do nothing’ 

In the past, Israel has been reluctant to send its troops into Gaza. A 2014 military memo leaked to the press said such an operation would “take five years, would result in a catastrophic human toll and would jeopardise the peace agreements with Egypt and the other Arab countries in the region." 

In 2023, the context has changed. “The information we are hearing from Israel today is that the shock [caused by the Hamas attack] is so great that Israel cannot do nothing. Either it goes into negotiations for months or years to free the hostages, or it acts now,” said Trinquand. 

But, the Israeli army has no guarantee of achieving its main objective: destroying Hamas quickly while limiting troop losses and civilian casualties.

Removing Hamas from power would likely require reoccupying Gaza – temporarily or possibly for years. Even then, Hamas has a long history of operating as an underground insurgent group in areas controlled by Israel. 

No doubt this is why Netanyahu has asked Israelis to prepare for "a long war". 

(With AP) 

This article was adapted from the original in French.